Pengaruh Non-Performing Loan (NPL), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), dan Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) terhadap Return on Equity (ROE) pada Bank BUMN yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2025

Abstract

This study examines the association of Non-Performing Loan (NPL), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) with Return on Equity (ROE) of state-owned banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2017-2025. The study uses 36 bank-year observations from Bank Mandiri, Bank Tabungan Negara, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and Bank Negara Indonesia. The available EViews 13 output provides a pooled ordinary least squares baseline. Under this specification, NPL is negatively associated with ROE (coefficient -2.0695), LDR is positive but statistically insignificant (0.1883), and CAR is positively associated with ROE (1.0615). The model is jointly significant and explains 37.89% of ROE variation. However, very high VIF values for LDR and CAR and a Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.4689 indicate that conventional t-statistics require caution. Because residual normality, Chow and Hausman tests, alternative specifications, and HAC or PCSE covariance estimates are not documented, the baseline findings should be treated as preliminary rather than final causal evidence. The weak LDR result may reflect heterogeneous credit segments and policy-lending mandates whose volume growth does not automatically increase shareholder returns. Managerially, capital strength and credit quality must be combined with operating efficiency in an integrated CAMELS framework.