Competitive Position, Trade Integration, and Determinants of Indonesia’s Basic Metal Exports To RCEP Countries: The Role of Downstream Industrialization Policy

Frisca Yunita Sari; Farida Rachmawati; Nasikh Nasikh

doi:10.55681/jige.v7i3.6129

Authors

Frisca Yunita Sari Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Malang
Farida Rachmawati Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Malang
Nasikh Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Malang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55681/jige.v7i3.6129

Keywords:

base metal exports, RCEP, competitiveness, RCA, IIT, EPD, Gravity Model

Abstract

Increased trade integration within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents both opportunities and challenges for Indonesia’s base metal exports. This study analyzes the competitiveness of Indonesia’s base metal exports to RCEP member countries and the factors influencing it, using a combination of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), x-model, Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), and panel data gravity models. Results indicate that Indonesia holds a comparative advantage in most RCEP countries, with EPD identifying Vietnam, the Philippines, China, and New Zealand as rising star markets, while Japan, Brunei, Myanmar, and Cambodia are lost opportunities. X-model clustering further highlights Malaysia, Thailand, and Australia as potential markets, and IIT analysis shows that Indonesia engages in both exports and imports of similar products, reflecting diversified trade patterns. Gravity model results reveal that GDP, exchange rates, the Logistics Performance Index (LPI), economic distance, and downstreaming policies positively influence exports, while FDI is not significant. These findings suggest that enhancing competitiveness requires focusing on rising star and potential markets, improving logistics efficiency, and strengthening downstreaming strategies.

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